巴氏杀菌乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的生长预测模型构建

巴氏杀菌乳中金黄色葡萄球菌污染可能会产生肠毒素,对人体健康造成危害。分别监测在4、10、16、20、24、28 ℃储藏条件下金黄色葡萄球菌在巴氏杀菌乳中的生长数据,采用Modified Gompertz模型、Logistic模型、Huang模型和Baranyi模型构建金黄色葡萄球菌动力学一级模型,采用平方根模型和Arrhenius模型建立二级模型以描述温度与相对最大生长速率(μ_max)的关系。结果显示,各温度下Modified Gompertz模型的拟合度更优,决定系数(R²)>0.98,均方根误差(RMSE)<4.6,为最合适的一级模型。二级模型中,Arrhenius模型的拟合度更优(R²=0.99,RMSE=0.60)。相较于平方根模型,外部验证显示Arrhenius模型的精确度因子(A_f)和偏差因子(B_f)分别为1.39和0.87,较接近于1,说明预测效果更好。研究结果可为巴氏杀菌乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的风险评估提供数据基础,为乳品货架安全期预测提供科学依据。     

张家港市农田土壤重金属含量高光谱遥感监测模型构建

以张家港农田土壤作为研究对象,在实验室测定土壤重金属元素As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Zn、Ni、Pb、Hg的含量,并与土壤可见近红外高光谱数据建立土壤重金属含量的定量估测模型,以快速获取研究区农田的土壤重金属含量。为保证模型预测的精度和稳定性,首先,对原始高光谱数据进行平滑处理,并进行一阶导数、倒数一阶导数、倒数的对数一阶导数、平方根一阶导数和连续统去除等形式的光谱变换;然后,提取不同变换光谱的特征波段进行相关性分析;最后,通过逐步回归法建立重金属含量的定量估算模型。结果表明:张家港市农田土壤中Cd、Hg、Cu、Zn存在一定的污染风险。在高光谱的不同变换形式中,一阶导数和连续统去除与重金属含量的相关系数高于其他变换形式。基于8种土壤重金属含量与高光谱数据建立的定量估算模型具有良好的预测精度。Cd、Hg、Cr、As、Cu、Zn、Ni、Pb估算模型的实际值与验证值的拟合度分别为0.874、0.879、0.800、0.646、0.513、0.655、0.603和0.542,可用于预测张家港市的农田土壤重金属含量。     

基于粮食安全贡献度的中国粮食主产区粮食供求格局演变

基于粮食安全贡献度的FSP模型分析框架,从省际粮食供需平衡的角度测算中国粮食主产区对国家粮食安全的贡献,并探究了粮食主产区粮食供求格局的演变特征。结果表明:除2000—2003年粮食产量骤降造成粮食供给缺口外,1991—1999年、2004—2018年中国粮食主产区粮食盈余(调出量)呈“稳中有降—绝对增长”的U型变化趋势,历年粮食安全贡献度均高于85%,粮食主产区的粮食地位相对稳固。粮食主产区的粮食供求格局经历了省际间的分化和重组。一方面,粮食供给向中北部地区集聚,而南部地区粮食产需紧平衡,粮食供需错配严重;另一方面,粮食供需空间分异明显,2000年后黑龙江、河南、吉林3省的粮食安全贡献度合计达50%左右,而湖南、江西、江苏、河北、湖北、四川、辽宁7省的历年粮食安全贡献度均低于5%,粮食调出总量合计仅占粮食主产区粮食调出总量的10%~20%。     

新农科背景下《生物统计学与试验设计》教学模式改革

《生物统计学与试验设计》是种子科学与工程专业重要的专业基础课和专业主干课,是一门实践性较强的工具性学科,在教学过程中,逐步建立了以培养新型农林人才为目标的课程教学体系,教学方法多元化、重视实践教学、强化过程性考核,对学生实践能力的培养收到较好的教学效果。     

基于城市建设用地扩张预测的城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限确定

确定城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限有利于流转双方做出符合其最大收益的期限选择,降低流转过程的交易成本。以理性选择理论为指导,构建城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限分析框架,以长沙市为例,运用CA-Markov模型模拟城市建设用地扩张,预测城郊村土地征收时间,并选取长沙市望城区某城郊村进行实证分析。分析认为,城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限是土地征收前流转双方收益均达到最大时对应的期限。土地征收前流转次数不同,其最优期限不同。流转双方可根据收益预期和主观意愿,参考城市建设用地扩张趋势预测土地被征收时间以确定最优流转期限。CA-Markov模型在确定土地经营权流转最优期限方面有一定的优势。     

不同水分条件下不同抗旱性苦荞根系生长规律研究

为了探明不同抗旱性苦荞根系形态和生理特性与抗旱性的关系,为干旱胁迫下苦荞高产优质栽培管理及抗旱品种的筛选提供理论依据,采用人工控水的方法,研究并分析了正常供水、重度干旱条件下不同抗旱性苦荞品种迪庆苦荞（耐旱）、黑丰1号（旱敏感）根系生长形态和生理指标变化。结果表明,干旱胁迫显著增加了苦荞根冠比、根系丙二醛（MDA）和脯氨酸（Pro）含量,而最大根长、根体积、根表面积显著降低。随着生育期推进,各处理苦荞最大根长、根体积、根表面积、MDA含量等指标均呈现逐渐增加趋势,根冠比、Pro含量呈现先增后减趋势。品种之间方差分析结果表明,重度干旱胁迫条件下,各测定时期迪庆苦荞的根冠比、最大根长、根体积、根表面积、根系Pro含量均显著高于黑丰1号,MDA含量则显著低于黑丰1号。回归分析表明,不同处理苦荞根表面积、最大根长等指标在测定时期内随时间变化的数学模型均符合指数函数,根体积、MDA含量等指标均符合一元二次方程的规律。干旱胁迫下苦荞根系与地上部分的生长均受到抑制,且表现为对地上部的影响大于对根系;与黑丰1号相比,迪庆苦荞耐旱性更强。     

中国粮食进口安全综合评价研究——基于超效率DEA模型

在对粮食及粮食进口安全内涵加以界定的基础上,从粮食数量、粮食质量、粮食价格、粮食贸易、国家经济、生态环境6个方面分析中国粮食进口安全的影响因素,基于超效率DEA模型构建中国粮食进口安全评价模型。对1992—2015年中国粮食进口安全状况进行评价,结果表明,1992—2015年中国粮食进口处于安全状态,粮食进口对我国粮食价格安全和生态安全的影响程度较小,对数量安全、质量安全、贸易安全和经济安全的影响程度较大。     

Spatial disparities in neighborhood public tree coverage: Do modes of transportation matter?

Urban green space has various environmental and ecological benefits, and uneven access to such amenities has drawn substantial attention from policy makers in developing sustainable community planning. In this study, we illustrate the spatial distribution of publicly owned and maintained trees in Edmonton, Canada and assess neighborhoods’ heterogeneous tree availability by using the container approach. Through spatial regression models, we further investigate the association of neighborhood public tree availability with socio-economic status (SES). We contribute to the existing literature by taking resident modes of transportation into consideration, in addition to many other commonly examined SES such as household income and ethnicity. Another unique contribution of this study is that we distinguish trees planted on different location types (i.e., boulevard, park, and buffer areas) when exploring the unequal coverage across neighborhoods and among different SES groups. Key results include: (1) a general examination without differentiating location types can lead to misleading results and thus provide inappropriate policy recommendations; (2) resident modes of transportation is a critical factor associated with a neighborhood’s public tree coverage; and (3) there exists evident spatial dependence on public tree availability between neighborhoods. The results from this study provide important information to better understand the issue and to allocate public resource (such as tree coverage) more efficiently and effectively to support sustainable community development.     

Modeling height-diameter relationship for artificial monoculture Metasequoia glyptostroboides in sub-tropic coastal megacity Shanghai,China

Tree height is a key variable in forest monitoring studies and for forest management. However, tree height measurement is time consuming, and the recommended procedure is to use estimates from tree height (H) - diameter at breast height (DBH) models. Increasingly, H-DBH models are being developed for urban forests, providing tools to forest management and ecosystem services estimation. Here, we compared model forms and approaches for predicting H as a function of DBH and additional stand level covariates variables. Four model forms were evaluated: (i) basic models (which only used DBH as predictor variable); (ii) generalized models (which used DBH and other predictor variables based on the best basic model); (iii) a mixed-effects model based on the best basic model; and (iv) a mixed-effects model based on the generalized model. Several sampling designs aimed at minimizing height measurement were tested in terms of accuracy and applicability. Taking predicted accuracy and investigation cost into account, we recommend generalized non-linear mixed-effects model (NLME) when there were two or less tree height measurements taken in a given stand. The basic NLME model could be calibrated when there were 3 or more tree height measurements, depending on the required level of accuracy and investigation cost. Additionally, we first reported that soil pH as a covariate variable in H-DBH model and our generalized NLME model implied that the difference in the H-DBH relationship caused by pH varies among different stands. This finding may be attributable to differing biological properties of the similar alkaline tolerance species.